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NYSE: AMPX
Amprius Technologies, Inc.
Leader in next-generation silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries. Highest energy density commercially available. Powering defense drones, aviation, and the future of energy storage.
Q4 revenue surged 137% YoY to $25.2M. Full-year revenue tripled to $73M. First positive quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.8M. 2026 guidance: $125M+ revenue with near-breakeven profitability. Stock up 792% in 52 weeks.
Current Price (Close)
After Hours
52-Wk High
$17.29
52-Wk Low
$1.70
Market Cap
$2.13B
P/S Ratio
30.67
User Holdings
Kerry Grinkmeyer
Executive Summary
3 Clear Investor Takeaways
Is this a good stock to maximize 3-year ROI?
Conditionally yes, but with significant caveats. Amprius is the leading silicon-anode battery company with 202% revenue growth in 2025 and a clear path to profitability in 2026. From today's price of $16.33, our moderate case projects $48 by January 2029 — delivering 194% ROI. However, the stock has already risen 792% in 52 weeks, the P/S ratio of 30.67 is extremely elevated, and the company is still pre-profit. This is a high-conviction speculative growth play.
Is it the best option in its sector?
Among pure-play silicon-anode battery companies, Amprius is the clear leader. Enovix (ENVX) at $4.85 has struggled with manufacturing scale. QuantumScape and Solid Power pursue solid-state tech that's further from commercialization. Amprius is the only company with $73M+ revenue, positive adjusted EBITDA, $14.8M in defense contracts, and NDAA-compliant manufacturing. No direct competitor matches this combination.
Buy, Sell, Hold, or Avoid?
Speculative BUY for high-conviction growth investors. The entry at $16.33 is near the 52-week high ($17.29), so patience for a pullback may be rewarded. Consider a half position now and add below $13. Current holders of 1,000 shares should HOLD — the thesis is strengthening with Q4 results and 2026 guidance. Stop-loss at $11.00 (near 50-day MA). Position sizing: 3-5% of portfolio given the speculative nature.
Investment Score
62 / 100
Speculative BUY. Strongest pure-play silicon-anode battery company with 202% revenue growth, defense contracts, and near-breakeven guidance for 2026. Tempered by pre-profit status, extreme valuation (P/S 30.67), high beta (3.07), and 13.8% short interest. Meets 100% ROI target under moderate/aggressive scenarios.
Quantitative Analysis
Core Financial Health
Profitability
Profit margin -60.3%, operating margin -11.7%. However, Q4 gross margin improved to 24% and FY2025 net loss included $22.5M one-time impairment. 2026 guidance: net loss under $8M.
Liquidity
Current ratio 7.08 — exceptional. $90.5M cash ($0.67/share) provides ~3 years of runway at current burn rate. No near-term liquidity concerns.
Solvency
Total debt $39.9M, debt/equity 38.4% — very manageable. Eliminated $110M+ lease obligation via Colorado facility termination. Capital-light model reduces future debt needs.
Efficiency
Revenue per share $0.59 — still early stage. Revenue tripled YoY to $73M showing rapid improvement. Per-employee metrics will become meaningful as revenue scales toward $125M+ in 2026.
Income Statement Highlights
Balance Sheet & Ownership
Margin Improvement Trajectory
Q4 gross margins reached 24%, up from single digits. Path to profitability accelerating.
Key Ratios
Trend-Focused Valuation Analysis
| Metric | Current | 6 Mo Ago | Industry | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A | 25-40 | Pre-profit |
| Forward P/E | N/A | N/A | 20-35 | Pre-profit |
| Price/Sales | 30.67 | 14.09 | 5-15 | Elevated |
| Price/Book | 18.83 | 7.48 | 3-8 | Premium |
| EV/Revenue | 33.00 | 15.28 | 5-12 | Elevated |
| Debt/Equity | 38.4% | ~40% | 30-60% | Healthy |
| Current Ratio | 7.08 | ~5.0 | 1.5-3.0 | Excellent |
Key Insight: Amprius trades at a significant premium on traditional valuation metrics — P/S of 30.67 and P/B of 18.83 are well above industry norms. However, for a company growing revenue at 202% YoY with a clear path to profitability in 2026, these multiples must be viewed through a growth lens. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong with a 7.08 current ratio and manageable debt. As revenue scales toward $125M+ in 2026, these ratios will compress meaningfully.
Growth & Kerry's Rule of 40
3-Year Revenue CAGR + EPS CAGR
Kerry's Rule of 40 Score
Revenue growth is extraordinary at 202%. EPS is transitioning from -$0.27 to guided -$0.06 in 2026. While EPS is still negative, the improvement trajectory combined with revenue growth easily exceeds our 40 threshold. PASSES with caveats (pre-profit).
Revenue Trajectory
Margin Expansion: Q4 gross margins reached 24%, up from single digits in 2024. The capital-light manufacturing pivot (terminating the $110M Colorado lease) dramatically improves the cost structure. 2026 guidance calls for positive adjusted EBITDA of $4M+ and net loss under $8M — a massive improvement from -$44M in 2025. The path to GAAP profitability is becoming visible.
Market Opportunity & TAM
Three Massive Tailwinds
Defense & UAS
TAM by 2030
$8B+
Growth Rate
25% CAGR
$14.8M DIU contract. NDAA-compliant manufacturing. Nokia Drone Networks partnership. $35M UAS purchase order. Critical supplier for U.S. military drone programs.
Urban Air Mobility / eVTOL
TAM by 2030
$25B+
Growth Rate
30% CAGR
eVTOL aircraft require the highest energy density batteries — exactly what Amprius delivers. SiMaxx platform targets aviation applications with unmatched performance.
EV & Consumer Electronics
TAM by 2030
$20B+
Growth Rate
18% CAGR
Higher energy density = longer range and lighter weight. Premium EV and consumer electronics segments value performance over cost. Silicon-anode adoption accelerating.
Combined TAM by 2030
$50B+
Amprius doesn't need to capture a large share to justify a much higher valuation. Even 1% market share across these segments would represent $500M+ in annual revenue — nearly 7x current levels. The defense segment provides the most near-term visibility with confirmed contracts and NDAA compliance.
Peer Comparison
Battery Technology Competitive Landscape
| Company | Price | Mkt Cap | Rev (TTM) | Rev Growth | Technology | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amprius (AMPX) | $16.33 | $2.13B | $73M | +202% | Silicon Anode | Leader |
| Enovix (ENVX) | $4.85 | $780M | $12M | +45% | Silicon Anode | Scale issues |
| QuantumScape (QS) | $5.20 | $2.8B | <$1M | Pre-rev | Solid State | Years away |
| Solid Power (SLDP) | $1.80 | $350M | $5M | -20% | Solid State | Struggling |
| Plug Power (PLUG) | $2.13 | $1.9B | $628M | -25% | Hydrogen FC | Declining |
Competitive Position: Amprius is the only company in this peer group with meaningful and rapidly growing revenue ($73M, +202% YoY), positive adjusted EBITDA, and confirmed defense contracts. Enovix is the closest silicon-anode competitor but has struggled with manufacturing scale. Solid-state competitors (QS, SLDP) are years from commercialization. Amprius has established a clear first-mover advantage in high-performance battery applications.
Scenario-Based Price Forecasts
Conservative / Moderate / Aggressive — from $16.33 today
Conservative
Revenue $200M by 2027, $300M by 2028. Gradual margin expansion. Defense contracts grow modestly.
Moderate (Base)
Revenue $250M by 2027, $400M by 2028. Stronger margin expansion. Additional defense & eVTOL contracts.
Aggressive
Significant eVTOL & defense market capture. Revenue exceeds $500M by 2028. Profitable by 2027.
100% ROI Goal Check
From today's price of $16.33, achieving 100% ROI requires $32.66 by January 2029. The conservative case reaches $35 (+114%), the moderate case reaches $48 (+194%), and the aggressive case reaches $75 (+359%). All three scenarios meet the 100% ROI target, though the conservative case barely clears the bar. The key variable is execution — scaling manufacturing and achieving consistent profitability.
Risk Dashboard
3-Year Investment Risk Summary
Volatility & Market Sensitivity
792% 52-week gain. Range: $1.70 - $17.29
Moves 3x the market — very high risk exposure
Before meaningful revenue; different company now
17.04M shares short — significant skepticism
Risk-Adjusted Returns
Strong returns relative to volatility, but driven by momentum
Downside risk has been limited during the rally
Expect sharp corrections in a high-beta name
Quick recoveries driven by defense contract catalysts
Key Risk Triggers to Reassess
Qualitative Analysis
Business Model, Management & Competitive Moat
Business Model
Amprius makes money by selling high-performance silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries under the SiCore and SiMaxx platforms. Their batteries deliver the highest commercially available energy density, which commands premium pricing in defense, aviation, and drone applications. The capital-light manufacturing model (partnering with Nanotech Energy for domestic production) reduces capex needs while scaling output. Revenue is driven by direct sales to defense contractors, UAS manufacturers, and aviation companies.
Management Quality
CEO Dr. Kang Sun is a founder with deep expertise in battery technology and nanotechnology. He holds a PhD from Stanford and has led the company from research to commercial production. The management team has delivered on every major milestone — scaling production, securing defense contracts, achieving first positive EBITDA, and executing the capital-light pivot. Insider ownership at 8.55% demonstrates meaningful skin in the game.
Competitive Moat & IP
Amprius holds key patents on silicon-anode battery technology developed from Stanford research. Their manufacturing know-how creates significant barriers to entry. The NDAA compliance requirement for defense applications further narrows the competitive field to U.S.-based manufacturers. The partnership with Nanotech Energy for domestic production strengthens the supply chain moat. No competitor currently matches their combination of energy density, commercial revenue, and defense qualification.
Regulatory & Geopolitical
NDAA compliance is a major competitive advantage — the U.S. government is actively seeking domestic battery suppliers to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing. The Defense Innovation Unit contract validates Amprius as a trusted supplier. Export restrictions on advanced battery technology could benefit domestic producers. The bipartisan push for energy independence and defense modernization creates a favorable policy environment for years to come.
Rubric Confidence Score
The wide range of outcomes reflects inherent uncertainty in a pre-profit, high-growth company. The technology is proven, the market opportunity is real, and defense contracts provide revenue visibility. However, execution risk in scaling manufacturing and achieving consistent profitability remains the key variable. The 792% run-up adds valuation risk to the equation.
Call to Action
Investor Summary & Tactical Guidance
Recommendation
Speculative BUY — High-conviction growth play at the intersection of defense, aviation, and battery innovation. Entry near 52-week high; consider half position now, add below $13.
Stop-Loss: $11.00 (near 50-day MA of $10.81). Position sizing: 3-5% of portfolio for high-conviction growth investors.
Bullish Confirmation: Sustained break above $17.29 (52-week high) on strong volume. Watch March investor presentations for additional catalysts.
Key Triggers to Reassess
Revenue guidance miss or downward revision below $125M
Failure to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026
Break below $11 on high volume
Significant dilutive capital raise
Loss of defense contracts or NDAA compliance issues
Samantha's Podcast
AI-Powered Audio Analysis by Samantha, BUSI Stock Analyst
🎙 Audio Analysis
AMPX Deep Dive — Amprius Technologies, Inc.
Samantha breaks down Amprius' position as the leading silicon-anode battery company, the Q4 earnings beat, defense contract momentum, the path to profitability, and what the data says about the road to $48 by 2029.
Duration: ~12 minutes | Generated by Samantha, Best of Us Investors AI Analyst